Shandong Publishing (601019): Based on the steady growth of the entire industrial chain in the province of education, taking into account the efficiency improvement

Shandong Publishing (601019): Based on the steady growth of the entire industrial chain in the province of education, taking into account the efficiency improvement

As the general distributor of primary and secondary school textbooks in Shandong Province, the company also owns exclusive copyrights in several categories of primary and secondary school textbooks in Shandong Province; based on the advantages of publishing resources, distribution networks, logistics guarantee, and professional services, it has always maintained the ShandongThe largest textbook publisher publisher charter.

In 2018, the company was selected as the “2018 TOP50 Chinese Cultural Enterprise Brand Value” list to 11.

The brand value of 6.9 billion US dollars ranked 32nd; according to the “2017 Press and Publishing Industry Analysis Report”, the company’s controlling shareholder Shandong Publishing Group Co., Ltd. ranked 7th in the National Book Publishing Group.

Realized operating income of 93 in 2018.

5 billion, a year-on-year increase of +5.

05%; net profit attributable to mother 14.

8.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of +8.

80%, of which the general book publishing business has grown rapidly, achieving sales of 10%.

8 billion, a year-on-year increase of +20.

77%, contributed operating income4.

7.5 billion, +22.

31%, gross margin 34.

37%, an increase of 0.

47 points.

The support policy of the publishing industry has continued, the stability of teaching aids has been strong, and the general structure of books has grown.

The publishing industry is a key industry supported by national policies, and enjoys preferential policies formulated by the state in terms of finance and benefits.

In June 2018, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the “Notice on Continuing Promotion of Cultural Alternative Preferential Policies”, which clearly states that they will continue to publish and publish 南京夜网 changed alternative preferential policies before the end of 2020; in December 2018, the General Office of the State Council issued theThe “Notice on Printing and Distributing the Provisions on the Transformation of Operating Cultural Institutions into Enterprises and Further Supporting the Development of Cultural Enterprises in the Cultural System Reform” clearly states that cultural enterprises that have completed the transformation will continue to be exempt from corporate income for five years starting in 2019.

According to open book data, the total size of China’s book retail market in 2018 was 894 trillion, a year-on-year increase of +11.

3%, of which children’s books have grown stronger than the industry for two consecutive years, the industry growth rate in 2017 was 21.

4%, 13.

At 7%, the sales code currently 杭州桑拿网 accounts for 25% of the entire book retail market.

19%.

The company’s operations are based on Shandong Province, a province with a large population, and Shandong Province, which is a province with a large education base. It takes advantage of the entire industry chain to effectively reduce internal transaction costs and improve operating efficiency.

As of 2017, Shandong has more than 12.03 million primary and secondary school students, and local education expenditures are about 190 billion yuan, accounting for 20% of all local fiscal expenditures.

4%; The company’s main business covers publishing, distribution, material trade, and the entire printing industry chain. The business layout is comparable to other domestic title publishing group companies; its affiliated publishing companies such as Tomorrow Club, Education Club, People’s Club, and Science Club publish preschool education., Elementary and secondary education, higher education and continuing education, vocational education and other all-age education content stage to give play to advantages and accelerate development.

Investment suggestion: The company’s industry is growing steadily and the cash flow is good. As a large provincial publishing group operating steadily throughout the industry chain, the core teaching and textbook business is based on a large population base and a large education expenditure province.Built by.

Since its listing, the company has maintained a high level of dividends, with a cash dividend ratio of 40 in 2018.

76%, the incremental reset is calculated based on the budget of the annual report release date.

25%.

We estimate the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 16 respectively.

200 million, 17.

800 million, 18.

9 trillion, corresponding to EPS0.

77 yuan, 0.

85 yuan, 0.

91 yuan, with reference to certain comparable companies, we give the company a 15x estimate for 2019, which corresponds to a target price of 11 in 2019.

7 yuan, give “Buy-A” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of expiration of the preferential budget policy, the risk of tendering for the distribution of teaching aids, and the general book development is less than expected.